Sunday, May 30, 2010

Euro shorties take care

Being still short on the euro is high risk. Indeed, an exchange rate of 1.25 is much more likely than 1.15 and 1.30 is more likely than 1.10. For the shorties it is time to pack and go home and search another prey. The euro will survive, the shorties won't. A sound analysis of the fundamentals clearly shows that the euro's external position does not warrant its demise. The eurozone has no current account deficit and no net external debt and the global competitive position of many euro countries is strong. Even more so: the highly indebted "Club Med" countries along with Ireland have implemented the measures to get clean. This by itself is a global rarity.

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