Friday, March 23, 2012

Is China already in hard landing?

China’s Premier: Curbs Needed to Prevent Property ‘Chaos’

“If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing,” Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact.” His team was a runner-up for best Asian equity strategists in a 2011 Institutional Investor magazine poll.Mowat said in May the risk of a hard landing was building in China as fixed-asset investment in real estate had increased even as property demand remained weak.
Comment: Maybe Mowar is right. The question with China was not if but when. Let's call the Chinese lucky when the contraction is already happening now. The longer these artifical booms last, the worse it gets. How big are the distortions of the Chinese economy? That's the central question now. In order to find out, you must visit China and search.

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