The euro's ascent since it hit a multi-year low around $1.18 last summer has taken many currency traders by surprise, not least because Europe's debt crisis continues to brew, with Portugal widely-tipped to become the third euro country following Greece and Ireland to get an international bailout.
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Comment: We did not belong to these pessimists, on the conrary. At this blog you have heard for months and months that the euro will strengthen against the US dollar. Last summer, when the euro hit a temporary low it seemed as if the whole world, and currency traders in particular, were united in the opinion that the euro would go down furthermore. I felt pretty much alone at that time. Yet, in the markets, it pays to be alone. In fact one rarely can make a lot money other than when one is pretty much alone with one's conviction. I say conviction, not opinion.
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