Wednesday, September 15, 2010

When every country wants to export more, who's gone to import?

-- Japan’s solo run to restrain the yen exposes a flaw at the heart of the global recovery effort: The world’s major economies can’t all export their way to prosperity.
As governments from Tokyo to Washington and Berlin struggle to spur their economies, unemployment and budget deficits are forcing them to pursue policies aimed at harnessing foreign demand. Japan embraced that strategy yesterday by intervening in markets for the first time since 2004 to slow the yen’s climb to a 15-year high against the dollar and protect its exporters.
The danger is that the race to hand companies such as Hitachi Ltd. and Boeing Co. an edge in the international marketplace will spark currency and trade tensions that further threaten global growth. Japan acted as U.S. lawmakers convene hearings to pressure China into letting the yuan appreciate and as the European Commission urges Germany to lower its reliance on foreign demand.
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It seems we're moving back into the 1930s when competitive devaluations pushed the world each time deeper into depression. What is usually forgotten in the debate about trade imbalances is in terms of macroeconomic accounting a trade deficit is the result of insufficient savings. When the leder of a deficit country complain about "too much imports", the remedy is quite clear: the new agenda for this country must be to consume less and save more.

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