Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The return of regime uncertainty

Bob Higgs got it right:
"... In my study of regime uncertainty over the past fifteen years, I have given weight to three independent forms of evidence: (1) specific legislative, executive, judicial, and regulatory actions the government is taking, the ideology embraced by major government actors and advisors, and, in light of basic economic logic, what investors might reasonably infer about the future security of their private property rights from the government’s actions and the ideology of its leading figures; (2) direct testimony by investors themselves, as well as relevant opinion surveys of businessmen, when available; and (3) changes in risk premiums demanded by investors in the corporate bond markets, as shown by changes in the slope of yield curves. During the past two years, my scrutiny of these types of evidence has persuaded me that regime uncertainty has arisen and that this uncertainty probably accounts, at least in part, for the very low level at which long-term private investment has settled, with only relatively small recovery since it hit its most recent trough..."
Full text with link to original paper
Comment: Regime uncertainty paralyzes economic activity and produces fear. Keynes put a lot of psychology into his concept of "animal spirits" and the "state of confidence". Yet it is Higgs who provides the data and analysis why businessmen and investors lose their entrepreneurial spirit and their confidence.
More than Obama himself it is his staff of "economic advisors" that has brought us into this stage.

No comments:

Post a Comment