Friday, February 26, 2010

Massive assault against the euro in the making

There are rumors out there that a group of hedge fund manager are planning a massive assault on the euro with the expectation to bring down to a parity of 1:1 against the dollar. This is good news for the European economy and it will be terrible for the US economy. Even if the onslaught on the currny should succeed, it won't be long-lived. Those who hold large euro position and do not care about short-term fluctuation of a couple of months need not change positions. Those who want to participate in the game should be forewarned that it may succeed for only a short time and those who are too slow to get out of the game in time will suffer massive losses. In fact, I would not exclude that by this game of fighting against economic fundamentals on a massive scale, some hedge funds, maybe even some very renowned-ones, will go bankrupt and by this will lose the last shirt of their clients. The small gain to win if the plan to assault the euro should work is not worth the risks of bearing the consequences if the plan should fail. I actually believe that the chance of failure are higher than the chances to win the game.

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