Sunday, May 22, 2011

What happens when Greece defaults 

Andrew Lilico   

Andrew Lilico is an Economist with Europe Economics, and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. He was formerly the Chief Economist of Policy Exchange.

It is when, not if. Financial markets merely aren’t sure whether it’ll be tomorrow, a month’s time, a year’s time, or two years’ time (it won’t be longer than that). Given that the ECB has played the “final card” it employed to force a bailout upon the Irish – threatening to bankrupt the country’s banking sector – presumably we will now see either another Greek bailout or default within days.
What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things:
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Comment: Well, dear Andrew, you may be right in your analysis about the consequences, yet I bet you are wrong in your premise. Exactly because of the consequences you so brilliantly described, Greece will not default.

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