Commentary: If you think things are bad now...
By Peter Brimelow , MarketWatch
"... Stock market bulls and most economists think that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking for either a long sideways bear market à la 1966-1982, or a hyperinflationary run to infinity. Our Elliott Wave outlook opposes both of these scenarios. The most likely profile is a stock market crash of historic proportions." Comment: I can't help myself nor anybody else. Nobody knows FOR SURE how things will play out. I agree with Prechter that the fundamentals point to deflation, the natural way of things to go after the debt excesses of the past couple of decades. On the other hand I see the role of the authorities and their endeavors to turn the boat from deflation to inflation. Prechter's thesis basically says: the authorities will fail, and because they will fail, they have made things worse than they otherwise would be. If the authorities won't manage to bring about a new inflation, a new deflation will happen and because of the (failed) market invention by the authorities, things will get much worse than otherwise with the expectation, indeed, that the Dow will go down to triple digits.
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